La Calzada 1–0 Vianés: Result & Stats

La Calzada

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vianés

10/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

La Calzada48%

×Draw25%

Vianés27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CalzadaExpected goals in this matchVianés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

La Calzada

1.59

Vianés

1.11

La Calzada creates 43% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 111 away

1.48

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

La Calzada

1.48

Vianés

1.12

allows per match

La Calzada

1.10

Vianés

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par

Vianés+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Vianés →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw

73%

La Calzada or Vianés

75%

Draw or Vianés

52%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+

25%

Vianés wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals

80%

La Calzada 2+ goals

47%

La Calzada 3+ goals

21%

Vianés 1+ goals

67%

Vianés 2+ goals

30%

Vianés 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)

65%

Vianés (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Vianés away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.71 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Vianés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Vianés attack 1.12 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

La Calzada scores more

48%

level

25%

Vianés scores more

27%

La Calzada at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff