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La Calzada vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
River Ebro
River Ebro
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

La Calzada51%
×Draw24%
River Ebro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.70
River Ebro
1.10

La Calzada creates 55% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 93 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
75%
La Calzada or River Ebro
76%
Draw or River Ebro
49%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
28%
River Ebro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
82%
La Calzada 2+ goals
51%
La Calzada 3+ goals
24%
River Ebro 1+ goals
67%
River Ebro 2+ goals
30%
River Ebro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
68%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

River Ebro attack 1.09 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Calzada scores more
51%
level
24%
River Ebro scores more
25%

La Calzada at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: La Calzada 0–1 River Ebro

River Ebro beat La Calzada 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.