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L'Entregu vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
San Martín
San Martín
1/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

L'Entregu46%
×Draw26%
San Martín27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.46
San Martín
1.06

L'Entregu creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
San Martín
1.55

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
73%
L'Entregu or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
54%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
23%
San Martín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
77%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
43%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
18%
San Martín 1+ goals
65%
San Martín 2+ goals
29%
San Martín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
63%
San Martín (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Martín attack 1.12 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

L'Entregu scores more
46%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
27%

L'Entregu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Entregu vs San Martín

L'Entregu beat San Martín 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.