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L'Entregu vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

L'Entregu31%
×Draw26%
Covadonga42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.17
Covadonga
1.40

Covadonga creates 20% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 83 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
58%
L'Entregu or Covadonga
74%
Draw or Covadonga
69%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
13%
Covadonga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
69%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
33%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
11%
Covadonga 1+ goals
75%
Covadonga 2+ goals
41%
Covadonga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
43%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Covadonga attack 1.80 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

L'Entregu scores more
31%
level
26%
Covadonga scores more
42%

Covadonga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 2–1 Covadonga

L'Entregu beat Covadonga 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.