Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Kyoto Sanga

Preview

10:00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

5/15/2027

J1 League · Round 35Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Big match

47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

model favours

27%26%47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kyoto Sanga27%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.48

Kyoto Sanga

1.06

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.48

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.94

creates per match

1.12

1.84

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

0.94

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.12

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.84

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.18

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.48scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

53%

Kyoto Sanga or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

73%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

10%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

65%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

29%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

9%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

77%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

43%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

37%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.12 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

27%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 60% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Kyoto Sanga

Balanced

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Defensively solid

51%Possession50%

71%Pass accuracy74%

12.8Shots16.8

1.13xGBiggest gap1.49

Kyoto SangaSanfrecce Hiroshima

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Kyoto Sanga

2

Draws

4

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%

0–42–11–11–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sanga

WLWL

Hiroshima

WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff