Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Y. Toyokawa 52'

9/23/2023

J1 League · Round 28Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kyoto Sanga26%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.53

Kyoto Sanga

1.03

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.53

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.93

creates per match

1.23

1.83

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

0.93

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.23

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.83

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.13

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.07on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

51%

Kyoto Sanga or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

9%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

64%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

28%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

9%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

78%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

45%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

34%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.83 · 7 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.93 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.23 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

26%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

49%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

Gu Sung-Yun

Kyoto Sanga · G

8.0

Match Events

46'

T. Matsuda← S. Fukuoka

46'

Marcos Júnior← G. Notsuda

52'

Y. Toyokawa

64'

Ezequiel← S. Nakano

65'

Douglas Vieira← P. Sotiriou

71'

N. Misawa← Y. Toyokawa

83'

Patric← R. Yamasaki

88'

D. Araki← N. Misawa

88'

F. Yamada← T. Matsuda

90+5'

Patric

90+1'

Taichi Hara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KyotoSanfrecce

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots23

0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.79

3Corners7

17Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots23

3On Target6

6Off Target8

0Blocked9

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box14

Passing

37%Possession63%

284Total Passes476

184Accurate Passes354

65%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2