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Kyoto Sanga vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
8/4/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 27Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Kyoto Sanga39%
×Draw28%
Montedio Yamagata33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Montedio Yamagata
1.13

Kyoto Sanga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 170 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Montedio Yamagata
1.27

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.99
Montedio Yamagata
1.16

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
67%
Kyoto Sanga or Montedio Yamagata
72%
Draw or Montedio Yamagata
61%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
17%
Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
71%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
36%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
13%
Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
68%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
31%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
54%
Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Kyoto Sanga defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%
level
28%
Montedio Yamagata scores more
33%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Montedio Yamagata

Kyoto Sanga beat Montedio Yamagata 1-0 in J2 League on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).