Kyoto Sanga 2–2 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mito Hollyhock

K. Sento 61'

K. Ichimi 37'

H. Mae 80'

S. Shimizu 3'

6/29/2019

J2 League · Round 20Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Kyoto Sanga41%

×Draw27%

Mito Hollyhock31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Kyoto Sanga

1.31

Mito Hollyhock

1.10

Kyoto Sanga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 168 away

1.32

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.32

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.00

Mito Hollyhock

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

69%

Kyoto Sanga or Mito Hollyhock

73%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

59%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

19%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

73%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

38%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

14%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

67%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

30%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

57%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.32 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

41%

level

27%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

31%

Kyoto Sanga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

22'

37'

45'

61'

66'

K. Murata← S. Shimizu

71'

T. Shichi

72'

R. Toyama← A. Kurokawa

79'

K. Kuroki

80'

H. Mae

84'

Y. Ishibitsu

84'

Y. Ishibitsu← J. Kanakubo

86'

Juninho← T. Shigehiro

86'

S. Escudero← K. Ichimi

86'

Y. Hiratsuka← Y. Asano

Kyoto

Mito

50

24

13

7

4

8

⚽

Mae

18

Shirai

32

▼

Kurokawa

6

Hirano

45

▼

Asano

14

⚽

▼

21

16

5

6

41

▼

Kanakubo

10

Shoji

22

Koyamatsu

14

⚽

Sento

31

Fukuoka

8

▼

Shigehiro

23

⚽

▼

Ichimi

Manager: I. Nakata

84'▲Y. Ishibitsu←▼J. Kanakubo

86'▲Juninho←▼T. Shigehiro

86'▲S. Escudero←▼K. Ichimi

Kyoto Sanga substitutes

30Ishibitsu20Juninho39Escudero1Kato3Miyagi13Miyayoshi28Tomita

Manager: S. Hasebe

66'▲K. Murata←▼S. Shimizu

72'▲R. Toyama←▼A. Kurokawa

86'▲Y. Hiratsuka←▼Y. Asano

Mito Hollyhock substitutes

11Murata23Toyama25Hiratsuka10Kimura20Mori21Murakami22Takizawa

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock

Kyoto Sanga and Mito Hollyhock drew 2-2 in J2 League on June 29, 2019.

Goals: S. Shimizu (3'), K. Ichimi (37'), K. Sento (61'), H. Mae (80').

The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).

Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock