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Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
7/16/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 23Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Kyoto Sanga42%
×Draw27%
Mito Hollyhock31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.32
Mito Hollyhock
1.09

Kyoto Sanga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 169 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Mito Hollyhock
1.19

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.99
Mito Hollyhock
1.31

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
69%
Kyoto Sanga or Mito Hollyhock
73%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
58%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
19%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
73%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
38%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
66%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
30%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
58%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.19 + Kyoto Sanga defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
42%
level
27%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
31%

Kyoto Sanga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Mito Hollyhock

Mito Hollyhock beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J2 League on July 16, 2018.

The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).