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Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
9/14/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 32Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga38%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.23
Machida Zelvia
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
66%
Kyoto Sanga or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
62%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
16%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
71%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
35%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
69%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
32%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
52%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
38%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
34%

Kyoto Sanga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia

Kyoto Sanga beat Machida Zelvia 2-0 in J2 League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).