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Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Preview
10:00
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
9/12/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Big match
56%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
21%23%56%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kyoto Sanga21%
×Draw23%
Kashiwa Reysol56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
Kashiwa Reysol
1.81

Kashiwa Reysol creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.94
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.84
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
44%
Kyoto Sanga or Kashiwa Reysol
77%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
79%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
7%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
64%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
27%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
8%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
84%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
54%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
27%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
21%
level
23%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
56%

Kashiwa Reysol at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
51%Possession54%
71%Pass accuracy81%
12.8Shots13.7
1.13xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kyoto SangaKashiwa Reysol

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Kyoto Sanga
5
Draws
3
Kashiwa Reysol
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
1–02–63–31–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sanga
WLWLL
Reysol
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyoto Sanga host Kashiwa Reysol

September 12, 2026: Kyoto Sanga take on Kashiwa Reysol in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyoto Sanga host Kashiwa Reysol at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.