Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kashiwa Reysol

8/6/2023

J1 League · Round 22Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kyoto Sanga21%

×Draw23%

Kashiwa Reysol56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.80

Kyoto Sanga

1.01

Kashiwa Reysol

1.80

Kashiwa Reysol creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.93

creates per match

1.77

1.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

0.93

Kashiwa Reysol

1.77

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.83

Kashiwa Reysol

1.08

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.07on par

Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

44%

Kyoto Sanga or Kashiwa Reysol

77%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

79%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

7%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

64%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

27%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

8%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

83%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

54%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

27%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.83 · 7 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.93 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

21%

level

23%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

56%

Kashiwa Reysol at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff