Kyoto Sanga vs JEF United Chiba

Kyoto Sanga

Preview

05:00

JEF United Chiba

12/13/2026

J1 League · Round 19Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Big match

46%

Kyoto Sanga

model favours

46%25%29%

JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kyoto Sanga46%

×Draw25%

JEF United Chiba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchJEF United Chiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.18

Kyoto Sanga

1.57

JEF United Chiba

1.18

Kyoto Sanga creates 33% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

JEF United Chiba

1.11

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

JEF United Chiba

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

JEF United Chiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

71%

Kyoto Sanga or JEF United Chiba

75%

Draw or JEF United Chiba

54%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

24%

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

79%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

46%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

21%

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

69%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

33%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

62%

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

JEF United Chiba attack 1.11 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

46%

level

25%

JEF United Chiba scores more

29%

Kyoto Sanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Kyoto Sanga

Balanced

JEF United Chiba

Balanced

51%Possession47%

71%Pass accuracy79%

12.8ShotsBiggest gap10.1

1.13xG1.13

Kyoto SangaJEF United Chiba

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Kyoto Sanga

3

Draws

2

JEF United Chiba

Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 30%

3–23–00–02–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sanga

WLWL

Chiba

LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff