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Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
6/1/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 17Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kyoto Sanga32%
×Draw23%
Cerezo Osaka45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.52
Cerezo Osaka
1.83

Cerezo Osaka creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.94
Cerezo Osaka
1.83

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.84
Cerezo Osaka
2.10

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less
Cerezo Osaka+0.17scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
55%
Kyoto Sanga or Cerezo Osaka
77%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
68%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
15%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
78%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
45%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
20%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
84%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
54%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
42%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.10 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.83 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
32%
level
23%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
45%

Cerezo Osaka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka

Kyoto Sanga and Cerezo Osaka drew 1-1 in J1 League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.