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Kvik Halden vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
PST
16:00
Senja
Senja
6/26/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kvik Halden72%
×Draw17%
Senja12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Halden
2.48
Senja
0.89

Kvik Halden creates 179% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kvik Halden
1.85
Senja
0.57

allows per match

Kvik Halden
1.20
Senja
3.10

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw
88%
Kvik Halden or Senja
83%
Draw or Senja
28%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+
49%
Senja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals
92%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
70%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
44%
Senja 1+ goals
59%
Senja 2+ goals
22%
Senja 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
86%
Senja (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.85 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.48

Senja attack 0.57 + Kvik Halden defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kvik Halden scores more
72%
level
17%
Senja scores more
12%

Kvik Halden at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kvik Halden host Senja

June 26, 2021: Kvik Halden take on Senja in 2. Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kvik Halden host Senja at Halden Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.