KVC Westerlo 2–1 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

KVC Westerlo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Standard Liege

2/16/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 26Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

KVC Westerlo46%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KVC WesterloExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.24

KVC Westerlo

1.60

Standard Liege

1.24

KVC Westerlo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.71

creates per match

1.05

1.43

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

KVC Westerlo

1.71

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

KVC Westerlo

1.43

Standard Liege

1.49

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.29scores less

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw

70%

KVC Westerlo or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

54%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+

23%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals

80%

KVC Westerlo 2+ goals

47%

KVC Westerlo 3+ goals

22%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

71%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

35%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)

61%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more

46%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

30%

KVC Westerlo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff