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KVC Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
Igor Vetokele 90+5'
E. Daci 40'
7/24/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 1Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

KVC Westerlo41%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.60
Cercle Brugge
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.71
Cercle Brugge
1.53

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.43
Cercle Brugge
1.49

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.29scores less
Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
65%
KVC Westerlo or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
59%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
20%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
80%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
47%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
22%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
77%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
43%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
53%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
41%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
35%

KVC Westerlo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
E. JordanovKVC WesterloKVC Westerlo · D
7.6

Match Events

20'
Boris Popović
28'
Robbe Decostere
31'
Boris Popović
31'
Boris Popović
34'
E. Utkus← K. Denkey
40'
E. Daci
53'
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
59'
Edgaras Utkus
59'
O. Deman← T. Somers
60'
C. Vanhoutte← H. Van der Bruggen
64'
L. Foster← K. Vaesen
67'
Lyle Foster
81'
J. Bernát← T. Dierckx
83'
L. Torres← S. Miangué
88'
R. Tagir← P. Perdichizzi
88'
Igor Vetokele← E. Daci
90+5'
Igor Vetokele↳ J. Bernát

Possession

63%KVC

Shots

18KVC

Pass accuracy

58%KVC

Statistics

KVCCercle
Overview
63%Possession37%
18Total Shots4
3Corners4
12Fouls20
Shots
18Total Shots4
8On Target0
7Off Target4
3Blocked0
10Inside Box1
8Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
451Total Passes269
360Accurate Passes152
80%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls20
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Jupiler Pro League: KVC Westerlo 2–0 Cercle Brugge

KVC Westerlo beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on July 24, 2022.

Goals: E. Daci (40'), Igor Vetokele (90+5').

KVC Westerlo controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.