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KVC Westerlo vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
12/1/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 16Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

KVC Westerlo47%
×Draw23%
Anderlecht30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.79
Anderlecht
1.38

KVC Westerlo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.71
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.43
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.29scores less
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
70%
KVC Westerlo or Anderlecht
77%
Draw or Anderlecht
53%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
26%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
83%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
53%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
26%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
75%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
40%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
61%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.79

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
47%
level
23%
Anderlecht scores more
30%

KVC Westerlo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KVC Westerlo vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat KVC Westerlo 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.