KV Mechelen 0–2 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

St. Truiden

12/3/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 16AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

KV Mechelen34%

×Draw25%

St. Truiden41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.52

KV Mechelen

1.37

St. Truiden

1.52

St. Truiden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

1.46

1.59

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.35

St. Truiden

1.46

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.59

St. Truiden

1.39

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.03on par

St. Truiden+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

59%

KV Mechelen or St. Truiden

75%

Draw or St. Truiden

66%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

15%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

75%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

40%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

16%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

78%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

45%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

46%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.39 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + St. Truiden defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

St. Truiden attack 1.46 + KV Mechelen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

34%

level

25%

St. Truiden scores more

41%

St. Truiden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff