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KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge KV — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
12/10/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 17AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

KV Mechelen28%
×Draw24%
Club Brugge KV49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.25
Club Brugge KV
1.73

Club Brugge KV creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.35
Club Brugge KV
1.86

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.59
Club Brugge KV
1.15

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.03on par
Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Club Brugge KV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
51%
KV Mechelen or Club Brugge KV
76%
Draw or Club Brugge KV
72%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
11%
Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
71%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
36%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
13%
Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
82%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
52%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
36%
Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + KV Mechelen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
28%
level
24%
Club Brugge KV scores more
49%

Club Brugge KV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge KV

KV Mechelen and Club Brugge KV drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Malines.