KV Mechelen 2–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Cercle Brugge

Vinicius Souza 37'

H. Cuypers 31'

K. Denkey 45'

S. Miangué 43'

2/26/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

KV Mechelen34%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.58

KV Mechelen

1.42

Cercle Brugge

1.58

Cercle Brugge creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.53

1.64

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.35

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.64

Cercle Brugge

1.49

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.03on par

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

59%

KV Mechelen or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

66%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

16%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

76%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

41%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

17%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

79%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

47%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

45%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + KV Mechelen defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

34%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

41%

Cercle Brugge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Cuypers

KV Mechelen · F

7.9

Match Events

31'

H. Cuypers↳ R. Schoofs

37'

Vinicius Souza↳ G. Hairemans

43'

S. Miangué↳ D. Hotič

45+2'

Vinicius De Souza Costa

45+2'

Senna Miangue

45'

K. Denkey

49'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

69'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

69'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

71'

C. Vanhoutte← O. Deman

75'

M. Shved← G. Hairemans

76'

Vinicius De Souza Costa

76'

Vinicius De Souza Costa

78'

Sousa← S. Miangué

78'

S. Ganvoula← K. Denkey

83'

Thomas Didillon

86'

Rick Van Drongelen

90+2'

S. Oum Gouet← R. Schoofs

90+3'

E. Utkus← D. Hotič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KVCercle

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots13

7Corners5

10Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots13

5On Target5

12Off Target4

4Blocked4

17Inside Box11

4Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

437Total Passes263

298Accurate Passes151

68%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge

KV Mechelen and Cercle Brugge drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 26, 2022.

Goals: H. Cuypers (31'), Vinicius Souza (37'), S. Miangué (43'), K. Denkey (45').

KV Mechelen controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne in Malines.

KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge