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KV Mechelen vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
2/1/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 23AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

KV Mechelen41%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.60
Anderlecht
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.33
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.63
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.03on par
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
65%
KV Mechelen or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
59%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
20%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
80%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
47%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
22%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
77%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
43%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
53%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 20 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.33 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + KV Mechelen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
41%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
35%

KV Mechelen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Anderlecht

KV Mechelen and Anderlecht drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Malines.