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Kuya Sport vs Rangers — Ligue 1 2019

Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rangers
Rangers
9/20/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kuya Sport39%
×Draw29%
Rangers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuya Sport
1.15
Rangers
1.02

Kuya Sport creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 83 away

creates per match

Kuya Sport
1.11
Rangers
0.86

allows per match

Kuya Sport
1.19
Rangers
1.19

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par
Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw
68%
Kuya Sport or Rangers
71%
Draw or Rangers
61%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+
16%
Rangers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals
68%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
32%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
11%
Rangers 1+ goals
64%
Rangers 2+ goals
27%
Rangers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
55%
Rangers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.19 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Rangers defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rangers attack 0.86 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kuya Sport scores more
39%
level
29%
Rangers scores more
32%

Kuya Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuya Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Kuya Sport 1–1 Rangers

Kuya Sport and Rangers drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.