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Kuya Sport vs Céleste — Ligue 1 2019

Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
FT
0 – 0
Céleste
Céleste
10/19/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kuya Sport36%
×Draw30%
Céleste34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuya Sport
1.09
Céleste
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kuya Sport
1.11
Céleste
0.91

allows per match

Kuya Sport
1.19
Céleste
1.07

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par
Céleste+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Céleste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw
66%
Kuya Sport or Céleste
70%
Draw or Céleste
64%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+
14%
Céleste wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals
66%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
30%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
10%
Céleste 1+ goals
65%
Céleste 2+ goals
28%
Céleste 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Céleste (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Céleste away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Céleste defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Céleste attack 0.91 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kuya Sport scores more
36%
level
30%
Céleste scores more
34%

Kuya Sport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kuya Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuya Sport vs Céleste

Kuya Sport and Céleste drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.