Kuressaare 0–6 FC Levadia Tallinn: Result & Stats

Kuressaare

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

FC Levadia Tallinn

3/9/2024

Meistriliiga · Round 2Kuressaare kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Kuressaare20%

×Draw22%

FC Levadia Tallinn58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuressaareExpected goals in this matchFC Levadia Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.93

Kuressaare

1.04

FC Levadia Tallinn

1.93

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 86% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

1.17

creates per match

2.22

1.63

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Kuressaare

1.17

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.22

allows per match

Kuressaare

1.63

FC Levadia Tallinn

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuressaare+0.00on par

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kuressaare or draw

42%

Kuressaare or FC Levadia Tallinn

78%

Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn

80%

Winning margin

Kuressaare wins by 2+

7%

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Kuressaare 1+ goals

65%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

28%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

9%

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals

85%

FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals

57%

FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

26%

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.63 · 131 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare attack 1.17 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.22 + Kuressaare defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kuressaare scores more

20%

level

22%

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more

58%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff