Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KuPS W vs Honka W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

KuPS W
KuPS W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Honka W
Honka W
9/4/2021Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 1Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

KuPS W61%
×Draw20%
Honka W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS W
2.29
Honka W
1.22

KuPS W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

KuPS W
3.33
Honka W
1.59

allows per match

KuPS W
0.85
Honka W
1.26

finishing

KuPS W+0.00on par
Honka W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS W ↓

Honka W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

KuPS W or draw
81%
KuPS W or Honka W
80%
Draw or Honka W
39%

Winning margin

KuPS W wins by 2+
39%
Honka W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KuPS W 1+ goals
90%
KuPS W 2+ goals
66%
KuPS W 3+ goals
40%
Honka W 1+ goals
70%
Honka W 2+ goals
34%
Honka W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

KuPS W (draw refunded)
76%
Honka W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.85 · 75 matches

Honka W away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS W attack 3.33 + Honka W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.29

Honka W attack 1.59 + KuPS W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

KuPS W scores more
61%
level
20%
Honka W scores more
19%

KuPS W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KuPS W 2 – 1 Honka W

KuPS W beat Honka W 2-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.