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KuPS vs Honka — Suomen Cup 2018

KuPS
KuPSadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Honka
Honka
4/10/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Semi-finalsSavon Sanomat Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KuPS45%
×Draw24%
Honka30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.65
Honka
1.31

KuPS creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

KuPS
2.46
Honka
2.17

allows per match

KuPS
0.46
Honka
0.83

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
70%
KuPS or Honka
76%
Draw or Honka
55%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
24%
Honka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
81%
KuPS 2+ goals
49%
KuPS 3+ goals
23%
Honka 1+ goals
73%
Honka 2+ goals
38%
Honka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
60%
Honka (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Honka away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 2.46 + Honka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Honka attack 2.17 + KuPS defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KuPS scores more
45%
level
24%
Honka scores more
30%

KuPS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KuPS 2–1 Honka

KuPS beat Honka 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Savon Sanomat Areena in Kuopio.