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KuPS Akatemia vs PKKU — Ykkönen 2026

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
Preview
13:00
PKKU
PKKU
8/16/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageVare Areena
Big match
40%
KuPS Akatemia
model favours
40%21%39%

PKKU have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KuPS Akatemia40%
×Draw21%
PKKU39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
1.94
PKKU
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.88
PKKU
2.12

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.73
PKKU
2.00

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 73No: 2773%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
61%
KuPS Akatemia or PKKU
79%
Draw or PKKU
60%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
21%
PKKU wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
86%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
58%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
30%
PKKU 1+ goals
85%
PKKU 2+ goals
57%
PKKU 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
50%
PKKU (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

PKKU away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.88 + PKKU defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

PKKU attack 2.12 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
40%
level
21%
PKKU scores more
39%

KuPS Akatemia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 94% of PKKU’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 81% over 2.5)
  • 81% of PKKU’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • KuPS Akatemia score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of KuPS Akatemia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • PKKU score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Akatemia
LDLDL
PKKU
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KuPS Akatemia vs PKKU — Match Preview

KuPS Akatemia face PKKU on August 16, 2026 in this Ykkönen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KuPS Akatemia host PKKU at Vare Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.