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Kuban Kholding vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
8/29/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Kuban Kholding39%
×Draw26%
SKA Rostov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.41
SKA Rostov
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 58 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
65%
Kuban Kholding or SKA Rostov
74%
Draw or SKA Rostov
61%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
18%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
76%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
41%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
17%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
74%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
38%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
52%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
39%
level
26%
SKA Rostov scores more
35%

Kuban Kholding at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–2 SKA Rostov

SKA Rostov beat Kuban Kholding 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.