Kuban Kholding 2–0 SKA Rostov: Result & Stats | Cup

Kuban Kholding

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SKA Rostov

7/20/2019

Cup · 1st RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuban Kholding33%

×Draw24%

SKA Rostov43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban KholdingExpected goals in this matchSKA Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.60

Kuban Kholding

1.36

SKA Rostov

1.60

SKA Rostov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kuban Kholding

1.40

SKA Rostov

1.00

allows per match

Kuban Kholding

2.20

SKA Rostov

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

SKA Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw

57%

Kuban Kholding or SKA Rostov

76%

Draw or SKA Rostov

67%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

14%

SKA Rostov wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

74%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

39%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

16%

SKA Rostov 1+ goals

80%

SKA Rostov 2+ goals

47%

SKA Rostov 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

43%

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.40 + SKA Rostov defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

SKA Rostov attack 1.00 + Kuban Kholding defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more

33%

level

24%

SKA Rostov scores more

43%

SKA Rostov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff