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Kuban Kholding vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
10/3/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Kuban Kholding54%
×Draw24%
Mashuk-KMV22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.74
Mashuk-KMV
1.03

Kuban Kholding creates 69% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 57 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Mashuk-KMV
1.18

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Mashuk-KMV
1.86

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
78%
Kuban Kholding or Mashuk-KMV
76%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
46%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
30%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
82%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
52%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
25%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
64%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
28%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
71%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.18 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
54%
level
24%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
22%

Kuban Kholding at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–0 Mashuk-KMV

Kuban Kholding beat Mashuk-KMV 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.