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Kuban Kholding vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
8/7/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Kuban Kholding40%
×Draw26%
Forte Taganrog34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.38
Forte Taganrog
1.25

Kuban Kholding creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 64 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
66%
Kuban Kholding or Forte Taganrog
74%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
60%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
19%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
75%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
40%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
16%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
71%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
36%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
54%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
40%
level
26%
Forte Taganrog scores more
34%

Kuban Kholding at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuban Kholding vs Forte Taganrog

Kuban Kholding beat Forte Taganrog 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.