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Kuban Kholding vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
10/9/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Kuban Kholding48%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Stavropol27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.50
Dinamo Stavropol
1.05

Kuban Kholding creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 92 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
73%
Kuban Kholding or Dinamo Stavropol
74%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
52%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
78%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
44%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
48%
level
26%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
27%

Kuban Kholding at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–2 Dinamo Stavropol

Dinamo Stavropol beat Kuban Kholding 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.