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KSZO 1929 vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
1 – 0
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
2/27/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

KSZO 192956%
×Draw22%
Sokół Sieniawa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
1.94
Sokół Sieniawa
1.14

KSZO 1929 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 71 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
78%
KSZO 1929 or Sokół Sieniawa
78%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
44%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
33%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
86%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
58%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
30%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
68%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
32%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
72%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
56%
level
22%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
22%

KSZO 1929 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: KSZO 1929 1–0 Sokół Sieniawa

KSZO 1929 beat Sokół Sieniawa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski.