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Ksar vs Chemal — Premier League 2020

Ksar
Ksar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Chemal
Chemal
11/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ksar28%
×Draw27%
Chemal44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksar
1.02
Chemal
1.35

Chemal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ksar
0.85
Chemal
1.30

allows per match

Ksar
1.41
Chemal
1.19

finishing

Ksar+0.00on par
Chemal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksar ↓

Chemal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ksar or draw
56%
Ksar or Chemal
73%
Draw or Chemal
72%

Winning margin

Ksar wins by 2+
11%
Chemal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ksar 1+ goals
64%
Ksar 2+ goals
27%
Ksar 3+ goals
8%
Chemal 1+ goals
74%
Chemal 2+ goals
39%
Chemal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ksar (draw refunded)
39%
Chemal (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksar at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

Chemal away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksar attack 0.85 + Chemal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chemal attack 1.30 + Ksar defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ksar scores more
28%
level
27%
Chemal scores more
44%

Chemal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chemal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ksar 1–3 Chemal

Chemal beat Ksar 3-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.