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Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kryvbas KR17%
×Draw20%
Dynamo Kyiv62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas KR
1.04
Dynamo Kyiv
2.15

Dynamo Kyiv creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kryvbas KR
1.41
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Kryvbas KR
1.81
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.84scores more
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw
38%
Kryvbas KR or Dynamo Kyiv
80%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
83%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
6%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
65%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
28%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
9%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
88%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
63%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
22%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.41 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more
17%
level
20%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
62%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kryvbas KR 0–2 Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.