Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

9/5/2020

First League · Round 7Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov64%

×Draw21%

Nizhny Novgorod15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.80

Krylya Sovetov

1.95

Nizhny Novgorod

0.80

Krylya Sovetov creates 144% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

3.00

creates per match

1.19

0.41

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

3.00

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.41

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

85%

Krylya Sovetov or Nizhny Novgorod

79%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

36%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

39%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

86%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

58%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

31%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

55%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

19%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

81%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

64%

level

21%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

15%

Krylya Sovetov at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff