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Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar — Premier League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
7/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylya Sovetov33%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.23
Krasnodar
1.39

Krasnodar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 119 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.31
Krasnodar
1.61

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.17
Krasnodar
1.16

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
59%
Krylya Sovetov or Krasnodar
74%
Draw or Krasnodar
67%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
14%
Krasnodar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
71%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
35%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
13%
Krasnodar 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
45%
Krasnodar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
33%
level
26%
Krasnodar scores more
41%

Krasnodar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar

Krylya Sovetov and Krasnodar drew 0-0 in Premier League on July 15, 2020.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.