Krylya Sovetov 5–1 FC Rostov: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

FC Rostov

8/5/2023

Premier League · Round 3Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylya Sovetov43%

×Draw26%

FC Rostov31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchFC Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Krylya Sovetov

1.42

FC Rostov

1.17

Krylya Sovetov creates 21% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.17

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.31

FC Rostov

1.18

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.17

FC Rostov

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

FC Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

69%

Krylya Sovetov or FC Rostov

74%

Draw or FC Rostov

57%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

20%

FC Rostov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

76%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

41%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

17%

FC Rostov 1+ goals

69%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

33%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

58%

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + FC Rostov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Rostov attack 1.18 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

43%

level

26%

FC Rostov scores more

31%

Krylya Sovetov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff