Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Akron: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Akron

11/7/2020

First League · Round 20Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov70%

×Draw19%

Akron11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.69

Krylya Sovetov

2.09

Akron

0.69

Krylya Sovetov creates 203% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 74 away

3.00

creates per match

0.97

0.41

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

3.00

Akron

0.97

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.41

Akron

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

89%

Krylya Sovetov or Akron

81%

Draw or Akron

30%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

45%

Akron wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

88%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

62%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

34%

Akron 1+ goals

50%

Akron 2+ goals

15%

Akron 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

86%

Akron (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.09

Akron attack 0.97 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

70%

level

19%

Akron scores more

11%

Krylya Sovetov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff