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Krylya Sovetov U20 vs Akhmat Grozny U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krylya Sovetov U20
Krylya Sovetov U20
PST
00:00
Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
3/21/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 23Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U2058%
×Draw20%
Akhmat Grozny U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov U20
2.20
Akhmat Grozny U20
1.27

Krylya Sovetov U20 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 90 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U20
2.27
Akhmat Grozny U20
1.09

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U20
1.45
Akhmat Grozny U20
2.13

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U20 ↓

Akhmat Grozny U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U20 or draw
79%
Krylya Sovetov U20 or Akhmat Grozny U20
80%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny U20
42%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+
36%
Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals
89%
Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals
64%
Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals
37%
Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
72%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
36%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Akhmat Grozny U20 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.20

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.09 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more
58%
level
20%
Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
21%

Krylya Sovetov U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylya Sovetov U20 face Akhmat Grozny U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Krylya Sovetov U20 hosting Akhmat Grozny U20. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Krylya Sovetov U20 host Akhmat Grozny U20 at Stadion Metallurg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.