Krylia Sovetov 1–2 FC Krasnodar: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Krasnodar

10/28/2024

Premier League · Round 13Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov33%

×Draw26%

FC Krasnodar41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchFC Krasnodar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.39

Krylia Sovetov

1.23

FC Krasnodar

1.39

FC Krasnodar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 119 away

1.31

creates per match

1.61

1.17

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

FC Krasnodar

1.61

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

FC Krasnodar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

FC Krasnodar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

59%

Krylia Sovetov or FC Krasnodar

74%

Draw or FC Krasnodar

67%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

14%

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

71%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

35%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

13%

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals

75%

FC Krasnodar 2+ goals

40%

FC Krasnodar 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

45%

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

33%

level

26%

FC Krasnodar scores more

41%

FC Krasnodar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff