Kristianstad W vs Brommapojkarna W

Kristianstad W

Preview

12:00

Brommapojkarna W

9/5/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 17Kristianstad Arena

Big match

54%

Kristianstad W

model favours

54%22%25%

Brommapojkarna W score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kristianstad W54%

×Draw22%

Brommapojkarna W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristianstad WExpected goals in this matchBrommapojkarna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.29

Kristianstad W

2.00

Brommapojkarna W

1.29

Kristianstad W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.38

1.21

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Kristianstad W

2.04

Brommapojkarna W

1.38

allows per match

Kristianstad W

1.21

Brommapojkarna W

1.97

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.13scores more

Brommapojkarna W-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw

75%

Kristianstad W or Brommapojkarna W

78%

Draw or Brommapojkarna W

46%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

31%

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

86%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

59%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

32%

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

72%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

37%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

69%

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.97 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.04 + Brommapojkarna W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.00

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.38 + Kristianstad W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kristianstad W scores more

54%

level

22%

Brommapojkarna W scores more

25%

Kristianstad W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Brommapojkarna W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Brommapojkarna W win just 10% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
Kristianstad W outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Kristianstad W

Balanced

Brommapojkarna W

Direct / counter-attacking

55%PossessionBiggest gap41%

77%Pass accuracy71%

13.5Shots10.2

1.75xG1.35

Kristianstad WBrommapojkarna W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

6

Kristianstad W

2

Draws

1

Brommapojkarna W

Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 78%

2–32–12–22–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

LWDLL

W

LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff