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Kristall MEZ vs Salyut-Belgorod — Cup 2019

Kristall MEZ
Kristall MEZ
Preview
15:00
Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
7/29/2026CupCup · Round of 64
58%
Kristall MEZ
model favours
58%20%21%

Kristall MEZ sit 16, Salyut-Belgorod 39 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kristall MEZ58%
×Draw20%
Salyut-Belgorod21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristall MEZ
2.17
Salyut-Belgorod
1.25

Kristall MEZ creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
Salyut-Belgorod
0.83

allows per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
Salyut-Belgorod
2.67

finishing

Kristall MEZ+0.00on par
Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristall MEZ ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kristall MEZ or draw
79%
Kristall MEZ or Salyut-Belgorod
80%
Draw or Salyut-Belgorod
42%

Winning margin

Kristall MEZ wins by 2+
36%
Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kristall MEZ 1+ goals
89%
Kristall MEZ 2+ goals
64%
Kristall MEZ 3+ goals
36%
Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
71%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
36%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kristall MEZ (draw refunded)
73%
Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristall MEZ at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristall MEZ attack 1.67 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.83 + Kristall MEZ defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kristall MEZ scores more
58%
level
20%
Salyut-Belgorod scores more
21%

Kristall MEZ at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kristall MEZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kristall MEZ and Salyut-Belgorod have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
MEZ
LWWW
Salyut-Belgorod
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kristall MEZ host Salyut-Belgorod

July 29, 2026: Kristall MEZ take on Salyut-Belgorod in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.