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Krieschow vs Wacker Nordhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Krieschow
Krieschow
CANC
12:30
Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
11/21/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Krieschow64%
×Draw19%
Wacker Nordhausen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krieschow
2.35
Wacker Nordhausen
1.15

Krieschow creates 104% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 35 away

creates per match

Krieschow
2.51
Wacker Nordhausen
1.03

allows per match

Krieschow
1.26
Wacker Nordhausen
2.20

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par
Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw
83%
Krieschow or Wacker Nordhausen
81%
Draw or Wacker Nordhausen
36%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+
41%
Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals
90%
Krieschow 2+ goals
68%
Krieschow 3+ goals
41%
Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
68%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
32%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)
79%
Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Krieschow scores more
64%
level
19%
Wacker Nordhausen scores more
17%

Krieschow at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krieschow host Wacker Nordhausen

November 21, 2020: Krieschow take on Wacker Nordhausen in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Krieschow host Wacker Nordhausen at Sportpark Krieschow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.