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Kray vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
13:15
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
1/24/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray41%
×Draw21%
Union Nettetal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.98
Union Nettetal
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kray or draw
62%
Kray or Union Nettetal
79%
Draw or Union Nettetal
59%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
22%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
86%
Kray 2+ goals
59%
Kray 3+ goals
31%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
85%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
56%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
52%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kray scores more
41%
level
21%
Union Nettetal scores more
38%

Kray at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kray host Union Nettetal

January 24, 2021: Kray take on Union Nettetal in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kray host Union Nettetal at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.