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Krasnodar W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Krasnodar W
Krasnodar W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
4/1/2023Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 4Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Krasnodar W17%
×Draw23%
CSKA Moskva W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar W
0.80
CSKA Moskva W
1.76

CSKA Moskva W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Krasnodar W
1.13
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Krasnodar W
1.36
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Krasnodar W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krasnodar W or draw
40%
Krasnodar W or CSKA Moskva W
77%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
83%

Winning margin

Krasnodar W wins by 2+
5%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Krasnodar W 1+ goals
55%
Krasnodar W 2+ goals
19%
Krasnodar W 3+ goals
5%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar W (draw refunded)
22%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.36 · 75 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar W attack 1.13 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Krasnodar W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Krasnodar W scores more
17%
level
23%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
60%

CSKA Moskva W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar W vs CSKA Moskva W

CSKA Moskva W beat Krasnodar W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.