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Krasnodar vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Krasnodar
Krasnodar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
10/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Krasnodar58%
×Draw23%
Krylya Sovetov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar
1.85
Krylya Sovetov
0.98

Krasnodar creates 89% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 106 away

creates per match

Krasnodar
1.92
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Krasnodar
0.93
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw
80%
Krasnodar or Krylya Sovetov
77%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
42%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+
33%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals
84%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
55%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
28%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
62%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)
75%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Krasnodar scores more
58%
level
23%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
20%

Krasnodar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Krasnodar 1-0 in Premier League on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.