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Krasnodar vs Khimki — Premier League 2018

Krasnodar
Krasnodar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
8/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Krasnodar63%
×Draw21%
Khimki16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar
2.04
Khimki
0.93

Krasnodar creates 119% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

creates per match

Krasnodar
1.92
Khimki
0.93

allows per match

Krasnodar
0.93
Khimki
2.15

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw
84%
Krasnodar or Khimki
79%
Draw or Khimki
37%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+
39%
Khimki wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals
87%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
60%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
33%
Khimki 1+ goals
61%
Khimki 2+ goals
24%
Khimki 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)
79%
Khimki (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Khimki attack 0.93 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Krasnodar scores more
63%
level
21%
Khimki scores more
16%

Krasnodar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Krasnodar 0–1 Khimki

Khimki beat Krasnodar 1-0 in Premier League on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.