Krasnodar 1–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Krasnodar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Moscow

Kady 69'

Bitello 21'

9/19/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 3Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krasnodar49%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Moscow27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.25

Krasnodar

1.76

Dinamo Moscow

1.25

Krasnodar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

1.74

0.76

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Krasnodar

1.88

Dinamo Moscow

1.74

allows per match

Krasnodar

0.76

Dinamo Moscow

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw

73%

Krasnodar or Dinamo Moscow

77%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

51%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals

83%

Krasnodar 2+ goals

52%

Krasnodar 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.88 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Krasnodar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krasnodar scores more

49%

level

23%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

27%

Krasnodar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Jorge Carrascal

21'

Bitello

60'

Vítor Tormena← J. Alonso

60'

Kady← E. Spertsyan

60'

S. Volkov← L. Olaza

61'

Kevin Pina

65'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu← V. Grulev

65'

L. Chávez← J. Carrascal

65'

K. Tyukavin← Y. Gladyshev

69'

Kady

72'

Diego Laxalt

75'

F. Smolov← D. Lesovoy

76'

Ilzat Akhmetov

77'

A. Chernikov← M. Banjac

77'

N. Marichal← A. Kutitskiy

85'

Batxi← I. Akhmetov

90+6'

Fabián Balbuena

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KrasnodarDinamo

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots17

12Corners8

13Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots17

7On Target10

3Off Target6

2Blocked1

Passing

58%Possession42%

Goalkeeping

9Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4